CAD: BoC likely to cut their main policy rate by 25bp to 0.25% – Westpac

By FXStreet FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the Bank of Canada meets this week and the sharp fall in energy prices and very limp data so far in Q4, pointing to ongoing recessionary conditions, should see the BoC cut their main policy rate 25bp to 0.25%.

Key Quotes

“Markets are not well prepared, pricing in only a 32% chance of a rate cut, much as was the case with the BoC’s two rate cuts in Jan and July 2015. The statement is sure to note that incoming data have been much weaker than expected by the Bank, is likely to demur from issuing any clear guidance and repeat that, “the Bank judges that the risks to the outlook for infl ation remain within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and using any rate cut is likely to be accompanied by relatively neutral language.

Bias: A BoC rate next week should see USD/CAD build on already hefty gains, a run at 1.45 on the cards. That said, talk of 1.50 and even 1.60 in 2016 suggests that this burst of USD/CAD strength is very well owned and nearing its denouement.”
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Source:: FX Street