Australian Q4 GDP preview – ANZ

By FXStreet The ANZ Economics Team is forecasting a 0.5% q/q increase in Australia’s Q4 GDP today vs 0.4% expected, which would suggest that growth remains modestly below trend.

key Quotes

“ANZ is forecasting a 0.5% q/q increase in Q4 GDP (mkt: 0.4% q/q) following the 0.9% q/q rise in Q3. Year ended growth is expected to be 2.6% (mkt: 2.5%), suggesting that growth remains modestly below trend.”

“Overall, the key themes that have been in play for some time look to have persisted in Q4. Housing continues to be a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is improving (along with a better labour market). Business investment is weak, with mining investment falling away sharply and no pick-up in non-mining business investment in sight.”

“Net exports look set to be neutral in Q4, although this follows a strong 1.5ppt contribution in Q3. An in-line with consensus print will have few policy implications as it would be broadly consistent with the RBA’s 2½% y/y February SoMP forecasts.”

“More important for the RBA, however, will be incoming activity and inflation data. The Bank continues to maintain a watching brief on global developments, while the focus for the domestic economy remains on labour market developments.”

“Indeed, if …read more

Source:: FX Street