Based on CPI, PCE outlook turning lower – Nomura

By FXStreet Analysts at Nomura reviewed the U.S. data overnight in fine detail and gauge the PCE outlook as less positive.

Key Quotes:

“In the week ending 9 April, initial jobless claims were 253k, a 13k decline from the prior week’s revised figure of 266k (previously reported as 267k). In the week ending 2 April, continuing claims were 2171k, an 18k decline from the prior week’s revised figure of 2189k (previously reported as 2191k) and a 1k decline from the previous BLS survey reference week in March.”

“The drop in both initial and continuing claims is positive for the US labor markets, but we note that claims data tend to be volatile around holidays (e.g., Good Friday/Easter) so we could see some retracement in the next couple reports. CPI: Headline CPI rose by 0.1% m-o-m in March, lower than market consensus of +0.2% and our forecast of +0.23%. The y-o-y headline CPI inflation inched down to 2.2% from 2.3% previously (Consensus and Nomura: +2.3%).”

“Energy prices increased by 0.9%, lower than our expectation of +1.5%. Gasoline prices, which accounts for about 40% of energy components, increased by 2.2%, a more moderate increase than we had expected. Moreover, food prices were unexpectedly down by 0.2%, led by …read more

Source:: FX Street