US August NFIB generating mixed signals about lift-off – ING

By FXStreet FXStreet (Delhi): Rob Carnell, Research Analyst at ING, note that the recent rsie in the August month’s NFIB survey of small businesses was just enough to conclude that business sentiment for these firms is drifting sideways, at a moderate level.

Key Quotes

“This is a somewhat choppy series, and month on month movements probably indicate less than the broad thrust of the recent moving averages.”

“With plenty of noise in this data, it is only the bigger moves we interest ourselves with, or steady trends. And of these, the standouts this month are the continued rise in plans to hire, the increased difficulty in filling positions, and the decline in planned selling price rises.”

“We don’t think there is enough signal amongst the noise to deduce anything about wages and compensation plans, however, though some further pick up in wages would be consistent with the other NFIB employment indicators.”

“Whilst this survey is an important piece of the labour market puzzle, we don’t think it is pivotal for the Federal Reserve, and like so much other data, is providing an inconclusive message.”

“With so much hanging on the September decision, we think the Fed is likely to play it safe and wait until October to hike, …read more

Source:: FX Street