All about oil and China so far in 2016 – Socgen

By FXStreet FXStreet (Guatemala) – Kit Jukes, economist at Societe Generale explained that the move in FX markets this year so far, has nothing to do with the dollar and everything to do with oil and China.

Key Quotes:

“Will that change after Friday’s US jobs data? The data really was a continuation of well-established trends. Wage growth was up to 2.6%, still showing signs of a very shallow uptrend.

The average employment increase in 2016 was 221k, a bit above the 208k average of the last 5 years. 1.9% y/y employment growth will keep GDP growth well above 2% even given the BIS piece on productivity. Not that the Treasury market cares as yields tumble in the face of wobbly equity markets and falling oil prices.

As long as the US data take second place to the international environment, the Yen will probably continue to be the winner. EUR/USD will remain stuck in its range, breaking lower in earnest only when the Treasury/Bund spread starts to move in the dollar’s favour.”
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Source:: FX Street