EM view: what to watch this week – TDS

By FXStreet Analysts at TD Securities explained their trade ideas for a busy week ahead in the EM’s.

Key Quotes:

“PLN is likely to remain supported against HUF after Moody’s decision on 14 May. With inception for PLNHUF at 72.20, we have a first target at 72.70 (around 200dma and key Fibo levels) and second target at 73.50. We set a stop at 71.70, before lifting the stop to 72.25 when the first target is achieved.

We continue to like short USDRUB positions as the favourable oil price environment and our bullish oil forecast support the ruble. RUB at around 64.83 is just above FV based on current Brent prices. Since inception on 27 Jan, the position’s P&L is +16.8%.

For similar reasons, we also like to buy an oil basket (long 50% RUB and long 50% BRL vs short 50% INR and short 50% TRY). The basket is up +17.7% (+18.7% including carry) since inception on 25 Jan.

Our long-term negative view on TRY continues to play well through a short TRYBRL trade with a target of 1.10. On 4 May, we achieved the first target at 1.20 (P&L +9.1% or 10.6% with carry). We now aim at 1.10, but with a lower stop at 1.25.”
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Source:: FX Street