FOMC: eyes on the dot plot – TDS

By FXStreet Analysts at TD Securities explained that beyond the adjustments to the macro projections, the evolution of the dot plot will garner far more attention.

Key Quotes:

“The relatively concentrated distribution of expectations in 2016 creates a very low bar for the median to shift lower, which in turns makes it likely that the 2017 and 2018 median dot will also move lower by 25bps:

2016: A 25bps shift lower in just two of the seven dots concentrated at the December median of 1.375% (four hikes) will pull the median down to 1.125% (three hikes), which an outcome consistent with the dovish members on the committee focused on the downside risks to the outlook. A more substantial shift lower to just two hikes is unlikely, as it requires five members to scale back their expectations by 50bps each.

2017: If the dots that are expected to shift lower in 2016 are not offset by an additional hike in 2017, the median dot will shift lower to 2.125% which still implies 100bps of hikes. To cut the median expectation to just three hikes, all four committee members at the median would need to lower their expectation by 50bps in 2017.

2018 & Longer-Run: There is …read more

Source:: FX Street