RBNZ: 65% chance of a 2016 25bps cut – Scotiabank

By FXStreet FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at Scotiabank explained that the RBNZ shifted to a neutral bias following its December 10 rate cut, however the implicit bias remains tilted to greater accommodation as the policy statement focused on exchange rate strength and low inflation.

Key Quotes:

“We note that markets are pricing a roughly 65% chance of a 25bpt cut over the next 12 months and highlight that 2Y NZ-US yield spreads favor NZD weakness.”

“Technically, NZD’s bearish momentum indicators have softened, and trend signals hint to a shift in the balance of risks.”

“We look to the 9 day MA (0.6468) as a level of near term congestion with resistance expected at the 21 day MA (0.6594).”
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Source:: FX Street