SGD: MAS preview – Westpac

By FXStreet Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the MAS semi-annual policy announcement will be delivered Thursday, along with Singapore’s advance Q1 GDP.

Key Quotes

“The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s semi-annual policy review is set for 8am local time (10am AEST) on Thu 14 April, at the same time as the advance reading on Q1 GDP. In October, the MAS noted a slightly weaker than expected growth profile but little change in its core inflation view. As a result, they “reduced slightly” the pace of appreciation of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy band, though still described this pace as “modest and gradual.”

This very gentle appreciation pace is a clear barrier to further monetary easing at this meeting. Q1 GDP is likely to be flat or slightly negative, but this will be seen in the context of the headline 6.2% SAAR burst of growth in Q4 (i.e. 1.5% q/q).

So a broadly stable growth outlook argues for no change in already accommodative monetary policy. Inflation meanwhile shows the familiar global divergence between headline/total inflation and core CPI. Singapore Feb CPI printed at -0.8% y/y, weighed by housing & utilities (-4.1%) and of course transport, -2.9%. But the MAS core …read more

Source:: FX Street