UK votes for Brexit in 2016 – HSBC

By FXStreet FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at HSBC, suggests that in 2016 UK is likely to vote for Brexit and while the terms of the exit would be key, repercussions would be felt across Europe.

Key Quotes

“David Cameron, the UK prime minister, has promised that by the end of 2017 at the latest there will be a referendum on whether the UK should remain in the European Union. But it is clear he would like to hold the vote in 2016, if at all possible, not least to reduce the uncertainty the event will engender.”

“There would be significant uncertainty in the immediate aftermath of a “leave” vote. The UK cannot negotiate the terms of its exit on a hypothetical basis, so there would be no clarity on what the post-EU arrangement would look like. If the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area, alongside countries such as Norway and Iceland, the economic implications would be very different to those of a complete withdrawal.”

“The UK’s transition to non-EU member status could take up to two years, at which point its membership would end automatically, if no agreement has been ratified by the European Council. The longer the period of uncertainty, the …read more

Source:: FX Street