US: Data reviews & initial jobless claims preview – Nomura

By FXStreet FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, reviews the data released in US and preview the forthcoming release of initial jobless claims data.

Key Quotes

“Preview:Initial jobless claims: The trend in jobless claims continues to signal limited layoffs and steady labor market conditions. Consensus expects 270k claims in the week ending 19 December.

Review

Personal income and spending: Personal income increased by 0.3% m-o-m in November, above market expectations but below our forecast (Nomura: 0.4%, Consensus: 0.2%). Personal spending increased by 0.3% m-o-m in November following a revised flat reading in October (previously reported as +0.1% m-o-m). Personal spending rebounded on stronger goods spending while service spending lagged behind.

On inflation, the PCE deflator was unchanged over the month (0.4% y-o-y) in November, below expectations but right in line with our expectations (Nomura: 0.0% m-o-m, Consensus: 0.1% m-o-m). Core PCE increased by 0.1% m-o-m (unrounded: 0.0114%), in line with expectations (Nomura: 0.0110% m-o-m, Consensus: 0.1% m-o-m), which left the year-over-year metric at 1.3% y-o-y.

Looking ahead, an expected waning of the negative base-effect will likely boost core PCE inflation to some extent. But as long as the underlying trend of medical care inflation (which carries a decent amount of weight in the core …read more

Source:: FX Street