US Elections: Odds of President Trump Rise – BBH

By FXStreet Research Analyst at BBH, suggests that with Cruz suspending his campaign, the odds of Trump have risen just above 40%.

Key Quotes

“The US national interests and challenges to those interests do not change much from year-to-year, and this may help explain the continuity in US foreign policy (including foreign economic policy). Trump’s campaign style emphasized a break from the conventional approach. There is already a faction that concludes that the US is shouldering a greater burden for globalization than it ought to as a question of will and resources. This faction mocks the United Nations and dragged their feet about accepting the new quotas at the IMF, which were a precondition of reforms.

Also given Trump’s style (temporally inconsistency) it is difficult to anticipate a coherent set of policies. The foreign economic policy thrust seems to be one of unilateralism that could scare foreign investors. The US is a net debtor in that foreign investors own more US assets (portfolio and direct investment) than US investors own foreign assets.

Perhaps Trump is embracing the idea of the G-Zero world that has been suggested by some political scientists. The US no longer has the power to …read more

Source:: FX Street