US: Kicking off with the ADP employment figure – Rabobank

By FXStreet Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research at Rabobank, suggests that there are quite a few US data points on the calendar for today, kicking off with the ADP employment figure.

Key Quotes

“This should give an estimate of the non-farm payrolls number, ahead of Friday’s official employment report. The expectations are for a broadly unchanged ADP. While this may trigger some initial market reaction ahead of Friday’s release, we argue that the more important data are the underlying factors, such as underemployment and wage pressure. ADP’s estimate won’t give us any pre-guidance on these, though.

The more important data today are perhaps the survey-based indicators of US economic activity, with both a final Markit Services PMI, as well as the ISM non-manufacturing composite. Although the US services sector is much more insulated against the global headwinds that put a drag on manufacturing, these surveys did indicate somewhat slower growth in the first two months of the year.

Both have recovered some of this weakness in March, though. The Markit PMI should confirm the further rebound that was signalled by the initial estimate. The ISM index should signal a similar rebound. Stronger survey data might bode well for the upcoming NFP …read more

Source:: FX Street