US: Non-Farm Payrolls preview – ING

By FXStreet Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that the US April labour report is not expected to tell us anything new…but the disconnect between labour and activity is puzzling – something has to give, eventually.

Key Quotes

“If we can take the data at face value, and that is not something we should take for granted, then the first quarter of 2016 saw US activity slide to an almost standstill. But despite that, labour market data has continued to run quite well.

The ADP survey, probably the least unreliable of all the monthly data, has raised concern with a softish 156,000 figure for April. And even though there are questions over the seasonality of the April ADP data, which often seems to under-predict the payrolls figures, adding this and the other data together, we are generally happy to be a little below the consensus estimate for payrolls of about 200,000 (INGF 190,000).

The labour force and unemployment usually move together, but not one-for-one, and this can give rise to swings that are essentially “noise”, but can add spice to an otherwise dull labour report. We think that after some months of very strong labour force growth, last month’s small dip …read more

Source:: FX Street