US retail sales fail to pick up momentum in March – ING

By FXStreet Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, notes that the US retail sales fall 0.3% mom in March, while the “core” rises only 0.1% mom.

Key Quotes

“Even when you take some upward revisions into account for February, this is yet another soft retail sales release, and makes an April rate hike look far-fetched

Consensus was hoping that despite the likelihood that the headline retail sales figure would be depressed by very weak auto sales in March, rising gasoline prices would provide some offset at the headline level, and a pick up in underlying sales would prop up the core figures. This did not happen. Indeed, the headline fell by 0.3% mom, much worse than the 0.1% increase expected, and core figures were also weak, with the control group for sales which strips out most of the volatile components, rising only 0.1%mom.

Moreover, when you take into account that these figures are dollar amounts, and not adjusted for inflation, which most likely rose in March as a result of higher energy prices (data released tomorrow), then it looks as if real consumer spending will barely register 1.0% growth in 1Q16, and real GDP for the same period will be equally soft.

All of which …read more

Source:: FX Street