World growth shrinking – ING

By FXStreet FXStreet (Guatemala) – Raoul Leering, Head of International Trade Research at ING Bank explained world trade volume shrank by 0.5% in October (month-on-month growth in volumes), according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

Key Quotes:

“But the upswing for September has been revised upward (+0.8% instead of 0.5%). The less volatile three months average (momentum) is still positive but the average growth of 1.4% is lower than the 1.9% in September.

The decline of world trade is surprising in the light of the positive data release on industrial production which usually has a positive effect on world trade. According to CPB world industrial production grew by 0.1% (momentum +0.5%), continuing its way up that started last June (with the exception of the marginal decline of 0.1% point in August).

Import figures were strong in October: a worldwide rise of 0.7%, with a strong rise of 2.6% for emerging Asia. But there was a loss of momentum for exports (-1.6%), especially for the US and emerging markets.

Import demand from the US and especially Japan shrank and the growth of demand from the Eurozone diminished. For 2015 world trade will grow only 1.1%, we expect. This is the lowest growth …read more

Source:: FX Street